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Trading guides

Risk, sizing, derivatives and the statistics behind a real edge.

Position sizing for people who hate maths

Two traders take identical trades. One risks 1% a trade, the other 10%. After eight losses, one is down 8% and the other needs to double what is left. Here is the one formula that matters.

How many trades before a track record means anything?

Three great months proves less than it feels like. The probabilistic Sharpe ratio gives a rough answer to how many trades you need before luck stops being the likely explanation.